PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman – CAPOTE; Terrence Howard - HUSTLE & FLOW; Heath Ledger - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN; Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE; David Strathairn - GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.
Who Should Win – Phillip Seymour Hoffman’s performance, as Truman Capote should not be overlooked by the Academy. Hoffman’s detailed, nuanced performance captures the troubled soul of Truman Capote that existed just below his broad personality. Hoffman emerges as an actor who truly deserves the accolades he is finally getting. Unfortunately, with Jamie Foxx winning last year for a biopic, and with the cresting wave of Brokeback fever, Hoffman may be robbed.
Who Will Win – Heath Ledger. While heath certainly emerged as the “Holy Crap” kid this season, and as good as he is in Brokeback Mountain, I think Hoffman and even Stathairn’s journeymen presence in this category would make Heath’s win a bit bittersweet.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney - SYRIANA; Matt Dillon - CRASH; Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN; Jake Gyllenhaal - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN; William Hurt - A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE
Who Should Win – Why is Matt Dillon not getting better scripts? After years of wallowing in “Last Night a McCool’s” and straight to video boobie flicks, Dillion finally captures a role worth his wasted years of potential. A fearless performance that encapsulates the internal dilemma of the film itself, Dillon deserves the statue.
Who Will Win – Paul Giamatti. Cuz he lost last year and beneath the god appliqué, Oscar is a cruel bitch.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench - MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS; Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA; Keira Knightley - PRIDE & PREJUDICE; Charlize Theron - NORTH COUNTRY; Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE
Who Should Win – Felicity Huffman. I haven’t even seen the flick. I don’t care; she’s a brilliant actress who needs to teach the Kiera Knightley’s of the world what it means to be an actress.
Who Will Win – Reese Witherspoon, because Hollywood needs another Julia Roberts right now.
PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - JUNEBUG; Catherine Keener - CAPOTE; Frances McDormand - NORTH COUNTRY; Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER; Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Who Should Win – Keener or Williams. Keener not only for her tender portrayal of Harper Lee, but also for a career of just being superb. Williams for shocking everyone for being the best thing to come out of Dawson’s Creek.
Who Will Win – Keener might pull this one out if Weisz doesn’t show up as a dark horse.
ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
BATMAN BEGINS ; BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN ; GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK.; MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA; THE NEW WORLD
Who Should Win – Batman…cuz’ it’s a Batman movie that even jerks liked.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN; CAPOTE; THE CONSTANT GARDENER; A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE; MUNICH
Who Should Win – I’d like to see HISTORY take it, but I really want Capote to win something.
Who Will Win - Brokeback
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
CRASH ; GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK; MATCH POINT; THE SQUID AND THE WHALE; SYRIANA
Who Should Win – Crash.
Who Will Win – Crash.
ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN; CAPOTE; CRASH; GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK; MUNICH
Who Should Win – Actually who shouldn’t win? Spielberg for Munich. Everyone else deserves this nomination but him. Munich was good, but compared tot eh emotional depths of Brokeback, Capote, and Crash it pales in comparison.
Who Will Win – Brokeback. Why? Cuz’ everyone who isn’t a bigoted republican loves it and Hollywood will make a point of that.
BEST MOTION PICTURE OF THE YEAR
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN; CAPOTE; CRASH; GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK; MUNICH
Who Should Win – Crash.
Who Will Win – I think Crash could take this if it doesn’t win for orginal screenplay. If Crash wins that category, Brokeback may take this one.